The Final Verdict

The Age

Friday September 2, 2005

ROBERT WALLS and TIM WATSON

Age experts Robert Walls and Tim Watson examine the key questions hanging over tonight's game at Subiaco Oval Is West Coast on the slide, or is its recent form (four losses from six games) misleading?

RW: Yes, the Eagles have real concerns. They have lost their past three games on the road and last week's loss at home to the Crows was a real concern as they had a big build-up for that game and still failed. To be absolutely smashed at Geelong two weeks ago was just not good enough. They really didn't have a go that day and you just can't turn form on like a tap.

For the first time this year, coach John Worsfold is seen defending and promoting his team. He senses there is a dropping of confidence in the ranks, and is keen to talk up his boys. Of the four top teams, all except West Coast enter September with a string of good wins behind them.

TW:West Coast is out of form; it has lost its structure and a midfield that looked unbeatable has been made to look average in recent times. In the past two weeks, the Eagles have managed to kick only 15 goals and in the past five weeks have averaged only 11 - equal to the worst-performed side in the AFL, Collingwood. The midfield is still getting plenty of the ball but they have slumped to worst in the competition at goals scored, percentage wise, on entries into the attacking 50.

Clearly, there is a lot for John Worsfold to address before this game. The good news is all the talent is still there and if they needed a wake-up call, they have had it.

If you are John Worsfold, how do you stop Barry Hall?

RW: To stop Barry Hall three things need to happen. One, West Coast play its best key defender, Darren Glass, on Hall.

Two is that the Eagles don't put an extra man back on Barry like the Hawks did last week - that tactic gave the Swans an extra midfielder, and with their excellent disposal skills they took advantage of that situation. To help Glass, Eagles ruckman Dean Cox needs to be conscious of pushing back to block Barry's lead into space.

Three, the most important way of limiting Hall is to reduce the supply of ball coming his way.

TW: If you are John Worsfold, you approach Barry Hall by having your forwards understand how important chasing-out pressure is. Hall will find life difficult, like any forward, if he is denied space and the ball arrives slowly.

Glass should be given the job first; he is fit and reasonably strong. After that, Worsfold may try a two-on-one situation and Cox may have to play more in the back half. This is against the natural way West Coast likes to play him and will mean a win for Paul Roos.

Can Sydney's midfield control West Coast's - or will Kirk, Crouch, Bolton, Buchanan, Ablett, et al, be found out for speed at Subiaco?

RW: The winning midfield should control the game.

Sydney will try to bottle up play.

It will try to force stoppages and make it congested in close where tough nuts like Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton, Luke Ablett and Ben Mathews thrive. West Coast will try to limit numbers around the stoppages by pushing its six or seven forwards back to the goal square to open up space for Chris Judd, Daniel Kerr, Ben Cousins and Andrew Embley to run into. If Cox controls the hit-outs, the Eagles should win. But that will be tough against the tandem team of Darren Jolly and Jason Ball.

TW: The Swans don't have the sheer class of the Eagles in the midfield but their discipline is equal to any other side in the competition.

Ablett may go to Judd and Williams may go to Cousins; either of those fellows can do the job and neutralise their direct opponent. Williams has the potential to do a lot of damage offensively, too. They may choose to operate the other way around; either way, they have the pace to match the Eagles' two key playmakers.

It will be a fascinating matchup with the rest of the engineroom players, as the teams are both laden with talent.

How will West Coast kick a winning score against the second-stingiest defence in the league?

RW:West Coast's forward line is suspect. It doesn't have the strategy, poise and system that Sydney has. The only tactic I see up forward for the Eagles is to have the midfield kick enough balls their way that eventually they must score.

Phillip Matera is their leading goal kicker with 38 goals. That represents only 10 per cent of his team's score. Last year, Matera in the final in Sydney was as cold as ice. Key forwards in Ashley Hansen, Quinten Lynch and Mark Seaby rarely kick a bag of goals. Ruckman Cox and midfielders Cousins, Judd, Chad Fletcher and Embley are relied upon for weekly contributions. Against the tight Sydney midfield they will have limited opportunities.

TW: All season, much of the opportunity for the Eagles' forward line has been created by its dominant and speedy midfield; they run the lines and create space. Matera has gone off the boil for several reasons, injury included, but a small forward relies on quick entries and due to a lack of them, his chances to score have dried up.

Hansen played well early in the season but hasn't returned with the same form, while Lynch is inconsistent. Worsfold likes to have a settled side but what will cause the Swans most concern is change and constant movement.

Where will the game be won - and lost?

RW: The midfield battle will decide the result.

West Coast needs Judd, Cousins and co to fire. If they don't, Sydney wins.

Sydney is methodical, disciplined and has shown in the past two months it can kick decent scores. If Hall failed or was injured, Sydney would struggle. The big fellow kicks 26 per cent of his team's score.

That's great, but it leaves a huge hole if he was to go missing. From the coaches' box, Sydney has the advantage. Paul Roos and his assistants don't have the pure talent to work with that John Worsfold has. As such, Roos is proactive in his moves to control the tempo of games and the positioning of players. Worsfold isn't.

TW: The Swans must get off to a good start and remove the crowd from the equation. This Eagles side is lacking in confidence and has several players who need to get early touches to pump them up. If the Swans can break even, they have the attack to worry the Eagles. Hall, OLoughlin, O'Keefe, Davis, Schneider - and Goodes pushing forward - all pose threats. At the other end, the Eagles' forwards must stand up against a miserly and well-drilled defence.

IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL RW: Andrew Embley (West Coast).

A tall, athletic winger who is likely to be opposed to Adam Goodes. If Goodes doesn't pay Embley the respect he deserves, it could be fatal to Sydney.

Nick Davis (Sydney). He is finally fit and confident in body and brain, and with his superb skills can turn a game in a fiveminute burst.

TW: Michael Braun (West Coast).

Often overlooked but is very high in handball receives and uncontested marks in the midfield.

Ryan O'Keefe (Sydney). Has had 26 shots at goal in the past six weeks and has kicked the ball inside 50 more than any other player at Sydney in the same time. He is in hot form.

AND, GENTLEMEN, YOUR TIP PLEASE ...

RW: Sydney by 15 points TW: West Coast by five points

© 2005 The Age

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